Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Concern is growing that global climate change will have widespread impact on the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, but future impacts are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. All available data, including records of past ecological change, need to be utilized to assess the range of potential future outcomes. Here we show that pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was of comparable magnitude to climatic change projected to occur in the next 100 to 150 years under high-emission scenarios. We used data from 596 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in global terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period, and to project the magnitude of ecosystem transformations under different emission scenarios in the future. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change, and suggest that without major reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere (i.e., in line with those targeted in the 2015 Paris Agreement), most terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.