From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect topdown global oversight with bottom-up sub-national knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially-explicit scenarios at national scale that model socio-economic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing sub-national (seven forest management Zones) and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025 - under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ca. 2% per year (up to 88,808 km2), with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation (i.e. loss of tree cover and biomass) up to 80,426 km2 of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10%) and implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km2 and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km2. This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users’ equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD+ climate mitigation strategy.