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A network equilibrium model with travellers' perception of stochastic travel times

Connors, RD and Sumalee, A (2009) A network equilibrium model with travellers' perception of stochastic travel times. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 43 (6). 614 - 624 . ISSN 0191-2615


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In this paper, we consider a network whose route travel times are considered to be random variables. In this scenario travellers choose their route, uncertain of the travel time they will experience on any of the available alternative routes. The attractiveness of a given route involves evaluation of both the possible travel time outcomes, and their perceived probability of occurring. We consider a modelling framework where the perceived value and perceived probabilities of travel time outcomes are obtained via nonlinear transformations of the actual travel times and their probabilities. In this context, we present the analysis required to formulate an equilibrium condition analogous to that of User Equilibrium, wherein travellers choose the routes that maximises their perceived value in the face of uncertain travel times. Existence and uniqueness conditions for this equilibrium are established. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) provides a well supported paradigm for choices made under uncertainty, where each choice alternative presents a discrete probability distribution of a finite number of possible outcomes. Our analysis admits the particular transformations associated with CPT as a special case, and holds for a more general class of transformations and for the case of a continuous distribution of outcomes.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: © 2009 Elsevier. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in 'Transportation Research Part B: Methodological'. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Keywords: Stochastic network, Cumulative prospect theory, Perceived travel time distribution, Network equilibrium, prospect-theory, traffic equilibrium, reliability, uncertainty, assignment, choice
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 26 Jan 2012 12:24
Last Modified: 24 Jun 2014 09:40
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2008.12.002
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.trb.2008.12.002
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43675

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