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Evaluation and Design of Transport Network Capacity Under Demand Uncertainty

Sumalee, A, Luathep, P, Lam, WHK and Connors, RD (2009) Evaluation and Design of Transport Network Capacity Under Demand Uncertainty. Transportation Research Record (2090). 17 - 28 . ISSN 0361-1981

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Abstract

A flexible evaluation and design model for transport network capacity under demand variability is proposed. The future stochastic demand is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Traveler path choice behavior is assumed to follow the probit stochastic user equilibrium. The network reserve capacity is used to evaluate the performance of the network. Since the future demand is stochastic, the reserve capacity is measured by possible increases in both mean and standard deviation (SD) of the base demand distribution. The proposed model therefore represents the flexibility of the network in its robustness to origin-destination demand variation (i.e., high SD). The proposed model can also determine an optimal network design to maximize the reserve capacity of the network for both the mean and the SD of the increased demand distribution. The implicit programming approach is applied to solve the optimization problem. Sensitivity analysis is adopted to provide all necessary derivatives. The model and algorithm are tested with a hypothetical network to illustrate the merits of the proposed model.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: © 2009 National Academy of Sciences. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Transportation Research Record. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Keywords: stochastic user equilibrium, road network, sensitivity-analysis, reliability
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2012 15:29
Last Modified: 08 Feb 2013 17:36
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2090-03
Status: Published
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Identification Number: 10.3141/2090-03
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43673

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