White Rose University Consortium logo
University of Leeds logo University of Sheffield logo York University logo

Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

Clark, S.D. and Watling, D.P. (2005) Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand. Transportation Research B: Methodological, 39 (2). pp. 119-140. ISSN 0191-2615

Available under licence : See the attached licence file.

Download (555Kb)


A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: Copyright © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in 'Transportation Research B'. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Adrian May
Date Deposited: 10 May 2007
Last Modified: 29 Jul 2014 20:14
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.006
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Refereed: Yes
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.006
Related URLs:
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/2471

Actions (repository staff only: login required)