Sweeney, J., Salter‐Townshend, M., Edwards, T. et al. (2 more authors) (2018) Statistical challenges in estimating past climate changes. WIRES Computational Statistics, 10 (5). e1437. ISSN 1530-8669
Abstract
We review the statistical methods currently in use to estimate past changes in climate. These methods encompass the full gamut of statistical modeling approaches, ranging from simple regression up to nonparametric spatiotemporal Bayesian models. Often the full inferential challenge is broken down into many submodels each of which may involve multiple stochastic components, and occasionally mechanistic or process‐based models too. We argue that many of the traditional approaches are simplistic in their structure, handling, and presentation of uncertainty, and that newer models (which incorporate mechanistic aspects alongside statistical models) provide an exciting research agenda for the next decade. We hope that policy‐makers and those charged with predicting future climate change will increasingly use probabilistic paleoclimate reconstructions to calibrate their forecasts, learn about key natural climatological parameters, and make appropriate decisions concerning future climate change. Remarkably few statisticians have involved themselves with paleoclimate reconstruction, and we hope that this article inspires more to take up the challenge.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in WIREs: Computational Statistics. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Bayesian methods and theory; computational Bayesian methods; Paleoclimate reconstruction; statistical modelling of climate |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Mathematics and Statistics (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number LEVERHULME TRUST (THE) F/00118/BE |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 14 Aug 2018 11:15 |
Last Modified: | 17 Apr 2024 14:37 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/wics.1437 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:134385 |