Sustainable transport policies under scarcity of oil supply

A strategic land-use–transport interaction model is used to investigate the impacts of policies in technology, infrastructure, pricing and regulation under different assumptions about energy supply. Six scenarios have been defined, analysing three policy strategies in two different contexts of energy supply—A, generally accepted energy supply forecast and B, worst-case energy supply forecast (scarcity of energy). Policies include: business as usual; investment in infrastructure and technology; and a demand regulation based approach involving changes in taxation and tolls. The paper assesses the impact and robustness of each policy against assumptions about future oil supply/demand. Our results demonstrate three key issues. First, scarcity of oil will accelerate the development and take-up of alternative fuel technologies; second, investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce energy consumption per kilometre travelled but will only reduce yearly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions after a time lag of about 15 years; so that, third, some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. Research is required to define the necessary level of regulation in combination with technology investments. However, we suggest that a policy involving improvements in infrastructure coupled with investments in fuel technology and differentiated fuel taxes will be required in the future.