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The probability of cost-effectiveness

O'Hagan, A. and Stevens, J.W. (2002) The probability of cost-effectiveness. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2 (1). p. 5. ISSN 1471-2288

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The study of cost-effectiveness comparisons between competing medical interventions has led to a variety of proposals for quantifying cost-effectiveness. The differences between the various approaches can be subtle, and one purpose of this article is to clarify some important distinctions.


We discuss alternative measures in the framework of individual, patient-level, incremental net benefits. In particular we examine the probability of cost-effectiveness for an individual, proposed by Willan.


We argue that this is a useful addition to the range of cost-effectiveness measures, but will be of secondary interest to most decision makers. We also demonstrate that Willan's proposed estimate of this probability is logically flawed.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: © 2002 O'Hagan and Stevens; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article: verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in all media for any purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL.
Institution: The University of Sheffield
Academic Units: The University of Sheffield > University of Sheffield Research Centres and Institutes > Centre for Bayesian Statistics and Health Economics (Sheffield)
Depositing User: Sheffield Import
Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2009 11:58
Last Modified: 08 Oct 2009 10:16
Published Version: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/2/5
Status: Published
Publisher: Biomed Central
Identification Number: 10.1186/1471-2288-2-5
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/9718

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