Evolving approaches to election forecasting

Since the development of electoral forecasting as a formalised modelling process, rather than informed punditry, polling estimates and economic predictors have dominated a field developed principally around the U.S. case. The main approaches have favoured two-party/-candidate systems and looked at incumbent / opposition vote change as a zero-sum game, a focus which continues to guide much forecasting work. This paper considers the developments in election forecasting, both in the use of increasingly sophisticated modelling to arrive at more complete predictions of party vote shares beyond simple incumbent reward / penalisation approaches, and in the use of a wider variety of data sources in predicting outcomes. Whilst more demanding for accurate prediction, the development of such models should provide a better understanding of “what matters” in elections.