Towards Victim-Oriented Crime Modelling in a Social Science e-Infrastructure

The National e-Infrastructure for Social Simulation (NeISS) is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between computation and social science within the UK Digital Social Research programme. The project aims to develop new tools and services for social scientists and planners to assist in performing ‘what-if’ scenario predictions in a variety of policy contexts. A key part of the NeISS remit is to explore real-world scenarios and evaluate real policy applications. Research into the processes and drivers behind crime is an important application area that has major implications for both improving crime-related policy and developing effective crime prevention strategies. This paper will discuss how the current e-infrastructure and available microsimulation tools can be used to improve an existing agent-based burglary simulation (BurgdSIM) by including a more realistic representation of the victims of crime. Results show that the model produces different spatial patterns when individual-level victim data are used and a risk profile of the synthetic victims suggests which types of people have the largest burglary risk.