Assessing the critical material constraints on low carbon infrastructure transitions

We present an assessment method to analyze whether the disruption in supply of a group of materials endangers the transition to low-carbon infrastructure. We define criticality as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of the system of interest to that disruption. Low-carbon energy depends on multiple technologies comprised of a multitude of materials of varying criticality. Our methodology allows us to assess the simultaneous potential for supply disruption of a range of materials. Generating a specific target level of low-carbon energy implies a dynamic roll-out of technology at a specific scale. Our approach is correspondingly dynamic, and monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon energy goal. It is thus not limited to the quantification of criticality of a particular material at a particular point in time. We apply our method to criticality in the proposed UK energy transition as a demonstration, with a focus on neodymium use in electric vehicles. Although we anticipate that the supply disruption of neodymium will decrease, our results show the criticality of low carbon energy generation increases, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies. We present a number of potential responses to reduce the criticality through a reduction in supply disruption potential of the exposure of the UK to that disruption.