Evans, JAJ and Ivaldi, G (2012) Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout. Political Research Quarterly, 65 (4). 855 - 866 (13). ISSN 1065-9129
Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic, and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimizing prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this article explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries and considers the explanatory added value that deriving such a forecast model can also provide.
|Keywords:||Elections; European Parliament; European Union; Forecasting|
|Institution:||The University of Leeds|
|Academic Units:||The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds)|
|Depositing User:||Symplectic Publications|
|Date Deposited:||09 Sep 2013 11:38|
|Last Modified:||15 Sep 2014 03:05|