Evans, JAJ and Arzheimer, K (2012) Geolocation and voting: candidate-voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England. Political Geography, 31 (5). 301 - 310 (10). ISSN 0962-6298
The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote-likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants' support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual's support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters' choice of candidate. Using a conditional logit model, we find that the distance between voter and candidates from the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat) matters in English constituencies, even when controlling for strong predictors of vote choice, such as party feeling and incumbency advantage.
|Keywords:||Candidates; Conditional logit; England; Incumbency; Spatial locations; Voting|
|Institution:||The University of Leeds|
|Academic Units:||The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds)|
|Depositing User:||Symplectic Publications|
|Date Deposited:||09 Sep 2013 11:30|
|Last Modified:||15 Sep 2014 03:05|