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Risk factors for fracture in a UK population: a prospective cohort study

Porthouse, J., Birks, Y.F., Torgerson, D.J., Cockayne, S., Puffer, S. and Watt, I. (2004) Risk factors for fracture in a UK population: a prospective cohort study. Quarterly Journal of Medicine, 97 (9). pp. 569-574. ISSN 1460-2725

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Common clinical risk factors for fracture in older women have been identified. To date, most of these risk factors have not been confirmed in a UK population.


To confirm the important risk factors for fracture in older women.


Comprehensive cohort study (CCS) with a nested randomized controlled trial.


The CCS included 4292 women aged >70 years. We assessed potential risk factors for fracture, and followed-up participants for 24 months for incidence of non-vertebral fractures.


Odds ratios (ORs) for predicting any non-vertebral fracture were: previous fracture, 2.67 (95%CI 2.10–3.40); a fall in the last 12 months, 2.06 (95%CI 1.63–2.59); and age (per year increase), 1.03 (95%CI 1.01–1.05). ORs for predicting hip fracture were: previous fracture, 2.31 (95%CI 1.31–4.08); low body weight (<58 kg), 2.20 (95%CI 1.28–3.77); maternal history of hip fracture, 1.68 (95%CI 0.85–3.31); a fall in the last 12 months, 2.92 (95%CI 1.70–5.01); and age (per year increase), 1.09 (95%CI 1.04–1.13). ORs for predicting wrist fracture were: previous fracture, 2.29 (95%CI 1.56–3.34); and a fall in the last 12 months, 1.60 (95%CI 1.10–2.31). Being a current smoker was not associated with an increase in risk, and was consistent across all fracture types.


Older women with the clinical risk factors identified in this study should be investigated for osteoporosis or offered preventive treatment.

Item Type: Article
Institution: The University of York
Academic Units: The University of York > Health Sciences (York)
Depositing User: York RAE Import
Date Deposited: 13 Feb 2009 12:43
Last Modified: 13 Feb 2009 12:43
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qjmed/hch097
Status: Published
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Refereed: Yes
Identification Number: 10.1093/qjmed/hch097
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/7435

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