Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Siqueira, M.F. and Grainger, A. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427 (6970). pp. 145-148. ISSN 0028-0836
Climate change over the past approx30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1, 2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (approx18%) than mid-range (approx24%) and maximum-change (approx35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
|Institution:||The University of York|
|Academic Units:||The University of York > Biology (York)|
|Depositing User:||York RAE Import|
|Date Deposited:||27 Mar 2009 15:39|
|Last Modified:||27 Mar 2009 15:39|
|Publisher:||Nature Publishing Group|