Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Siqueira, M.F. and Grainger, A. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427 (6970). pp. 145-148. ISSN 0028-0836
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Climate change over the past approx30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1, 2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (approx18%) than mid-range (approx24%) and maximum-change (approx35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Academic Units: | The University of York > Biology (York) |
| Depositing User: | York RAE Import |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Mar 2009 15:39 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Mar 2009 15:39 |
| Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
| Identification Number: | 10.1038/nature02121 |
| URI: | http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/7048 |
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