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Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra.

Claxton, K., Sculpher, M., McCabe, C., Briggs, A., Akehurst, R., Buxton, M., Brazier, J. and O'Hagan, T. (2005) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra. Health Economics, 14 (4). pp. 339-347. ISSN 1057-9230

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Recently the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) updated its methods guidance for technology assessment. One aspect of the new guidance is to require the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis with all cost-effectiveness models submitted to the Institute. The purpose of this paper is to place the NICE guidance on dealing with uncertainty into a broader context of the requirements for decision making; to explain the general approach that was taken in its development; and to address each of the issues which have been raised in the debate about the role of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in general. The most appropriate starting point for developing guidance is to establish what is required for decision making. On the basis of these requirements, the methods and framework of analysis which can best meet these needs can then be identified. It will be argued that the guidance on dealing with uncertainty and, in particular, the requirement for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, is justified by the requirements of the type of decisions that NICE is asked to make. Given this foundation, the main issues and criticisms raised during and after the consultation process are reviewed. Finally, some of the methodological challenges posed by the need fully to characterise decision uncertainty and to inform the research agenda will be identified and discussed.

Item Type: Article
Institution: The University of York
Academic Units: The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Mathematics and Statistics (Sheffield)
The University of York > Centre for Health Economics (York)
The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield)
Depositing User: York RAE Import
Date Deposited: 22 May 2009 14:51
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2015 11:48
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hec.985
Status: Published
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Identification Number: 10.1002/hec.985
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/6259

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