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Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: a model based study

Shepherd, SP, Bonsall, PW and Harrison, G (2012) Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: a model based study. Transport Policy, 20. 62 - 74 (12). ISSN 0967-070X


This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by Struben and Sterman (2008) to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications.

Item Type: Article
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2012 10:11
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2014 03:43
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43669

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