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Modelling threshold exceedances of air pollution concentrations via non-homogeneous Poisson process with multiple change-points

Gyarmati-Szabo, J, Bogachev, L and Chen, H (2011) Modelling threshold exceedances of air pollution concentrations via non-homogeneous Poisson process with multiple change-points. Atmospheric Environment, 45 (31). 5493 - 5503 . ISSN 1352-2310

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Abstract

A Bayesian multiple change-point model is proposed to analyse violations of air quality standards by pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NO) and carbon monoxide (CO). Threshold exceedance occurrences are modelled by a step rate Poisson process fitted after short-range correlations in the exceedance data are removed via declusterisation. The change-points are identified, and the rate function is estimated, using a reversible jump MCMC algorithm adapted from Green (1995). This technique is applied to the daily concentration data collected in Leeds, UK (1993–2009). Results are validated by running the MCMC estimator on the posterior-replicated data. Findings are discussed in the context of the past environmental actions and events. The proposed methodology may be useful for the air quality management by providing quantitative means to measure the efficacy of pollution control programmes.

Item Type: Article
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 20 Jan 2012 10:24
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2014 03:44
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.049
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.049
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43634

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