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Improving the quality of demand forecasts through cross nested logit: a stated choice case study of airport, airline and access mode choice

Hess, S, Ryley, T, Davison, L and Adler, T (2011) Improving the quality of demand forecasts through cross nested logit: a stated choice case study of airport, airline and access mode choice. Transportmetrica. ISSN 1812-8602 (In Press)

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Abstract

Airport choice models have been used extensively in recent years to assist the transport planning in large metropolitan areas. However, these studies have typically focussed solely on airports within a given metropolitan area, at a time when passengers are increasingly willing to travel further to access airports. This article presents the findings of a study that uses broader, regional data from the East Coast of the United States collected through a stated choice based air travel survey. The study makes use of a cross-nested logit structure that allows for the joint representation of inter-alternative correlation along the three choice dimensions of airport, airline and access mode choice. The analysis not only shows significant gains in model fit when moving to this more advanced nesting structure, but the more appropriate cross-elasticity assumptions also lead to more intuitively correct substitution patterns in forecasting examples.

Item Type: Article
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 19 Mar 2012 11:36
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2014 03:45
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/18128602.2011.577758
Status: In Press
Publisher: Taylor & Francis for Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies
Identification Number: 10.1080/18128602.2011.577758
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43614

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