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Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Austin, J, Wilson, RJ, Akiyoshi, H, Bekki, S, Butchart, N, Claud, C, Fomichev, VI, Forster, P, Garcia, RR, Gillett, NP, Keckhut, P, Langematz, U, Manzini, E, Nagashima, T, Randel, WJ, Rozanov, E, Shibata, K, Shine, KP, Struthers, H, Thompson, DWJ, Wu, F and Yoden, S (2009) Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. ISSN 0094-8276

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Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: © 2009 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Keywords: interactive chemistry, ozone, variability, validation, aerosol
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds)
Depositing User: Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited: 10 Oct 2011 11:29
Last Modified: 07 Jun 2014 08:08
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038462
Status: Published
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Refereed: Yes
Identification Number: 10.1029/2009GL038462
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43309

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