White Rose University Consortium logo
University of Leeds logo University of Sheffield logo York University logo

Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors

Wardman, M.R. (2006) Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 42 (3). pp. 129-148. ISSN 1366-5545

Available under licence : See the attached licence file.

Download (436Kb)


This paper estimates an enhanced model for forecasting railway demand and to explain the high levels of growth experienced in the 1990’s in Great Britain. The problems with previous forecasting methods and research findings are outlined. The key driver of demand is found to be GDP, but variations in car journey times, fuel costs, car ownership levels, population and a post-privatisation time trend have also made significant contributions. The estimation makes use of two large data sets obtained from recorded ticket sales and from travel surveys. The estimated models are in use within the rail industry in Great Britain and have been able to successfully predict rail demand levels experienced since 1998.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: Copyright held by Elsevier Science. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Keywords: Railways, Demand Forecasting, External Factors, GDP Elasticities
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Adrian May
Date Deposited: 03 Oct 2007 13:28
Last Modified: 16 Sep 2014 08:14
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2004.07.003
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier
Refereed: Yes
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.tre.2004.07.003
Related URLs:
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/3394

Actions (repository staff only: login required)