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Estimating confidence intervals for transport Mode share.

Clark, S.D. and McKimm, J. (2005) Estimating confidence intervals for transport Mode share. Journal of Transportation and Statistics, 8 (2). pp. 894-911.

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One of the common statistics used to monitor transport activity is the total travel by a particular method or mode and, for each mode, this share is routinely expressed as a percentage of total personal travel. This article describes a simple model to estimate a confidence interval around this percentage using Monte Carlo simulation. The model takes into account the impact of both measurement errors in counting traffic and daily variations in traffic levels. These confidence intervals can then be used to test reliably for significant changes in mode share. The model can also be used in sensitivity analysis to investigate how sensitive the width of this interval is to changes in the size of the measurement errors and daily fluctuations. A bootstrap technique is then used to validate the Monte Carlo estimated confidence interval.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: This is a publisher produced version of a paper published in the Journal of Transportation and Statistics. The papers from this journal are in the public domain and may be used and reprinted without special permission. For more information please visit their website.
Keywords: Mode share, confidence intervals, Monte Carlo, bootstrap.
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Adrian May
Date Deposited: 28 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2014 18:25
Published Version: http://www.bts.gov/publications/journal_of_transpo...
Status: Published
Publisher: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Refereed: Yes
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/2543

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