Hirst, W.M., Mountain, L.J. and Maher, M.J. (2004) Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36 (5). pp. 717-727.
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Abstract
This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Copyright held by Elsevier Science and published with thier permission. |
| Keywords: | Road safety; Regression-to-mean; Trend in risk; Correction for bias |
| Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) |
| Depositing User: | Adrian May |
| Date Deposited: | 04 May 2007 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Feb 2013 17:04 |
| Published Version: | http://www.elsevier.com/wps/product/cws_home/336 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.005 |
| URI: | http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/2462 |
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