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Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models.

Hirst, W.M., Mountain, L.J. and Maher, M.J. (2004) Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36 (5). pp. 717-727.

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Abstract

This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: Copyright held by Elsevier Science and published with thier permission.
Keywords: Road safety; Regression-to-mean; Trend in risk; Correction for bias
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Adrian May
Date Deposited: 04 May 2007
Last Modified: 08 Feb 2013 17:04
Published Version: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/product/cws_home/336
Status: Published
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Refereed: Yes
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.005
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/2462

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