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National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

Clark, S.D. (1996) National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models. Working Paper. Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds , Leeds, UK.

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Abstract

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: Copyright of the Institute of Transport Studies, University Of Leeds
Institution: The University of Leeds
Academic Units: The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)
Depositing User: Adrian May
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2007
Last Modified: 22 Jul 2014 05:45
Published Version: http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/
Status: Published
Publisher: Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds
Identification Number: Working Paper 465
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/2121

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