Bonsall, P.W. (2004) Traveller Behaviour: Decision making in an unpredictable world. Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning, and Operations, 8 (1). pp. 45-60. ISSN 1547-2442Full text available as:
Available under licence : See the attached licence file.
This paper discusses the nature and consequences of uncertainty in transport systems. Drawing on work from a number of fields, it addresses travellers’ abilities to predict variable phenomena, their perception of uncertainty, their attitude to risk and the various strategies they might adopt in response to uncertainty. It is argued that despite the increased interest in the representation of uncertainty in transport systems, most models treat uncertainty as a purely statistical issue and ignore the psychological aspects of response to uncertainty. The principle theories and models currently used to predict travellers’ response to uncertainty are presented and number of alternative modelling approaches are outlined. It is argued that the current generation of predictive models do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting response to changes in the degree of uncertainty or for predicting the likely effect of providing additional information. A number of alternative modelling approaches are identified to deal with travellers’ acquisition of information, the definition of their choice set and their choice between the available options. The use of heuristic approaches is recommended as an alternative to more conventional probabilistic methods.
|Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:||Copyright © 2004 Taylor and Francis Inc. Uploaded in accordance with the self-archiving policy of the copyright holders. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in 'Journal Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning, and Operations'.|
|Keywords:||behavior, choice, uncertainty, risk, unpredictability|
|Institution:||The University of Leeds|
|Academic Units:||The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds)|
|Depositing User:||Adrian May|
|Date Deposited:||22 Feb 2007|
|Last Modified:||10 Jun 2014 06:50|
|Publisher:||Taylor and Francis|