Shaweno, D., Horton, K.C., Hayes, R.J. et al. (1 more author) (2021) Assortative social mixing and sex disparities in tuberculosis burden. Scientific Reports, 11. 7530. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
Globally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0–30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11–31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years—insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4–14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL MR/P022081/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 22 Apr 2021 15:28 |
Last Modified: | 22 Apr 2021 15:34 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41598-021-86869-w |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:173348 |
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