Spatial impact of cropland supplement policy on regional ecosystem services under urban expansion circumstance: a case study of Hubei Province, China

The Cropland Supplement Policy (CSP) helps maintain the total area of cropland in China as urban areas expand, but can result in environmental degradation as areas of more natural habitat are turned into cropland. Current and future impacts of the CSP are explored under different land-use change scenarios by comparing the differences in ecosystem services value (ESV) at province level. Scenario-based simulation results suggest that in Hubei province, the CSP cost 19.53 billion CNY in the period 2000 to 2015 and would cost an additional 12.54 billion CNY in the period 2015 to 2030 in terms of ESV loss. A policy analysis framework for land-use planning is proposed which enables ecological impacts of the CSP to be considered.