Enhanced EnHub : dynamic simulation of housing stock energy systems

In the UK, heating systems are the most prominent contributor to residential energy demand, with about 80% of the share. Their representation has thus been at the core of all UK-focussed Housing Stock Energy Models (HSEMs). However, these HSEMs estimate heating demand based on monthly or annual energy balances, with correspondingly approximate representations of heating systems and practices (incl. energy conversion, distribution and spatiotemporal control). This paper describes an extension to the dynamic HSEM: EnHub, to rigorously simulate space heating and hot-water components (i.e. heaters, boilers, pumps, radiators, end-point registers, thermostats, taps). Baseline simulations estimate the English housing stock's energy use as 35.9 mtoe. Alternative scenarios in which heating systems are substituted across the board to district heating or ground-source heat pumps predict a reduction in demand to 30 and 18 mtoe respectively; the latter potentially being zero-carbon if the power sector is successfully decarbonised.