The use of data mining methods for the prediction of dementia : evidence from the English longitudinal study of aging

Dementia in older age is a major health concern with the increase in the aging population. Preventive measures to prevent or delay dementia symptoms are of utmost importance. In this study, a large and wide variety of factors from multiple domains were investigated using a large nationally-representative sample of older people from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Seven machine learning algorithms were implemented to build predictive models for performance comparison. A simple model ensemble approach was used to combine the prediction results of individual base models to further improve predictive power. A series of important factors in each domain area were identified. The findings from this study provide new evidence on factors that are associated with the dementia in later life. This information will help our understanding of potential risk factors for dementia and identify warning signs of the early stages of dementia. Longitudinal research is required to establish which factors may be causative and which factors may be a consequence of dementia.