Data and Methods for Estimating and Projecting International Migration by Ethnicity

This document provides additional information about the methods used to develop the international migration inputs to the projections described in the associated JEMS paper and discusses further methods that might be included in future projections of international migration by ethnicity.

In order to project the population by ethnicity, it is necessary to estimate immigration and emigration for the starting baseline year (2011) for the 12 ethnic groups in our analysis. The estimates are required for the United Kingdom and for its constituent local authorities. This is a challenge because international migration is poorly measured in the United Kingdom through a survey, the International Passenger Survey (IPS), which does not include a question on migrant ethnicity. It is also necessary to decide on the model for forecasting immigration and emigration and to forecast those flows into the future to 2061.