Not so welcome here? Modelling the impact of ethnic in-movers on the length of stay of home-owners in micro-neighbourhoods

This paper considers the length of stay of home-owners with white British names in the 40% most-deprived census areas of Glasgow, Scotland. We estimate the impact of ethnically ‘other’ name-group inflows through property purchases at the micro-neighbourhood level. We use a novel longitudinal data set, constructed from the population of home-buyers recorded in all property transaction records from 2003 to 2014, from which we impute ethnicity using name-matching software. We estimate how the survival time (length of ownership) of home-owners with white British names is affected by in-migration of house-buyers from different ethnic name-groups into the micro-neighbourhood, defined as a 50 m radius around each home. Results suggest a complex set of associations between ethnically ‘other’ purchasers/in-movers (based on name groups) and duration of home-ownership for white-British named owners. The most consistent finding is for in-moving purchasers with Pakistani (primarily Muslim) names, which tend to have a relatively large accelerant effect on the moving propensity of home-owners who have white British names. This was true in areas of both high and low non-white ethnic population share. We also find evidence of nonlinearity in this relationship: the accelerant effect diminishes with each additional in-move from purchasers with Pakistani names. The name group with the largest overall accelerant effect was for in-movers with non-white Other names, which were also primarily Muslim in origin, though this effect was less consistent across models.