Crystals, Bubbles and Melt: Critical Conduit Processes Revealed by Numerical Models

Understanding how magma moves within a conduit is an important question that is still poorly understood. In particular, estimation of the magma ascent rate is key for interpreting monitoring signals and therefore, predicting volcanic activity. This relies on understanding how strongly different magmatic processes occurring within the conduit control the ascent rate. These processes are controlled by changes in magmatic parameters such as the water content or temperature and understanding/linking changes of such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step in the use of these data as a predictive tool. The results presented here are from a suite of conduit flow models based on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, that assesses the influence of individual model parameters. By systematically changing these parameters, the results indicate that changes in conduit diameter and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables. However, the single most important parameter controlling variations in the magma ascent rate is the volatile content. Therefore, understanding the processes controlling the volatile content within the conduit system and the outgassing of these volatiles is crucial to understanding and predicting potential unrest or eruption scenarios.