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Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin

Hill, J K (orcid.org/0000-0003-1871-7715), Thomas, C D (orcid.org/0000-0003-2822-1334) and Huntley, B (1999) Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. pp. 1197-1206. ISSN 1471-2954

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Evidence of anthropogenic global climate change is accumulating, but its potential consequences for insect distributions have received little attention. We use a 'climate response surface' model to investigate distribution changes at the northern margin of the speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria. We relate its current European distribution to a combination of three bioclimatic variables. We document that P. aegeria has expanded its northern margin substantially since 1940, that changes in this species' distribution over the past 100 years are likely to have been due to climate change, and that P. aegeria will have the potential to shift its range margin substantially northwards under predicted future climate change. At current rates of expansion, this species could potentially colonize all newly available climatically suitable habitat in the UK over the next 50 years or more. However, fragmentation of habitats can affect colonization, and we show that availability of habitat may be constraining range expansion of this species at its northern margin in the UK. These lag effects may be even more pronounced in less-mobile species inhabiting more fragmented landscapes, and highlight how habitat distribution will be crucial in predicting species' responses to future climate change.

Item Type: Article
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: © 1999 The Royal Society. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Institution: The University of York
Academic Units: The University of York > Biology (York)
Depositing User: Repository Officer
Date Deposited: 15 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2016 04:20
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1999.0763
Status: Published
Refereed: Yes
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/1294

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