Gyenge, N. and Erdélyi, R. (2017) Predicting the loci of solar eruptions. In: Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union. Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts, 17-21 Jul 2017, Exeter, UK. Cambridge University Press , pp. 201-204.
Abstract
The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al, 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast method applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.
Metadata
Item Type: | Proceedings Paper |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 International Astronomical Union. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Sun: flares; Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs); Sun: sunspots; Sun: rotation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Mathematics and Statistics (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FACILITIES COUNCIL ST/L006316/1 THE ROYAL SOCIETY IE141493 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 27 Oct 2017 10:30 |
Last Modified: | 19 Dec 2022 13:37 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1017/S1743921317008006 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:123162 |