British Medical Association's Cohort Study of 2006 Medical Graduates: Longitudinal Analysis of Career Trajectories

This report presents the findings of a longitudinal analysis of the ten years of the BMA's 2006 Cohort Study of Medical Graduates, which has been undertaken by an independent team of researchers from the Universities of Sheffield and York. The longitudinal analysis focuses on the career trajectories of the medical graduates over the ten year period of the cohort study. Specifically, it is concerned with establishing:

- the range of career trajectories and changes within;

- the drivers behind different career trajectories and changes within;

- the relationship between career intentions and career behaviour.

Due to its robustness relative to other variables, the analysis highlights in particular gender dimensions of career trajectories. Section1 presents the key findings. Section 2 provides background information on the BMA's 2006 Cohort Study. Section 3 explains the conceptual and methodological approach adopted in the longitudinal analysis. Section 4 presents the results of the descriptive longitudinal analysis in two parts. Firstly, it examines patterns of change over time in the intentions of the junior doctors towards their careers, focusing on: their ultimate career goals, their intended area of medicine, their intention to work overseas and their intention to work outside the NHS. Secondly, it examines patterns of change over time in the actual behavioural choices of the doctors surveyed towards their careers, focusing on: career moves, including career breaks and overseas working; speciality moves; and career progression. Section 5 presents the results of the multivariate analysis undertaken to examine the impact of socio-demographic factors on career decisions taken by junior doctors over time. Section 6 situates the findings reported in the previous section in a wider social policy context, focusing on two areas in particular: workforce and morale (including NHS funding, pay, working hours, staffing, recruitment), and the gendered characteristics of junior doctors’ career trajectories. We juxtapose external policy drivers (within health policy, immigration and family policy) and their hypothesised impacts with the evidence from the longitudinal analysis of the cohort study. Section 7 finally, highlights areas for further research.