Transitions and Impacts of Passenger Car Powertrain Technologies in European Member States

In this paper we seek to understand the relative impacts that policies and incentives focused on e-mobility may have on the technology market shares for passenger cars, and the associated fleet energy requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. We have a European Union (EU) wide focus, and from this deduce what recommendations could be provided for countries intending to encourage e-mobility in the near future. For this task we integrate two in-house models of the vehicle fleet and market developed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre. Our main policy conclusion is that although ambitious policy may lead to great improvements in specific efficiency and emissions, second order effects could lead to increased passenger car activity, limiting the overall emission improvement achieved. Therefore, any policy portfolio requires not only technological policies (aimed at both users and manufacturers), but also would need to address wider mobility patterns in an integrated approach. As such not only do we present findings relevant for policy decision making but also contribute to methodological approaches regarding the use and integration of modelling tools in support to policy design.