Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Martinez-Bakker, M. et al. (1 more author) (2016) Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology , 85 (2). pp. 343-355. ISSN 0021-8790
Abstract
Summary
Epidemiological dynamics are shaped by and may in turn shape host demography. These feedbacks can result in hard to predict patterns of disease incidence. Mathematical models that integrate infection and demography are consequently a key tool for informing expectations for disease burden and identifying effective measures for control.
A major challenge is capturing the details of infection within individuals and quantifying their downstream impacts to understand population-scale outcomes. For example, parasite loads and antibody titres may vary over the course of an infection and contribute to differences in transmission at the scale of the population. To date, to capture these subtleties, models have mostly relied on complex mechanistic frameworks, discrete categorization and/or agent-based approaches.
Integral Projection Models (IPMs) allow variance in individual trajectories of quantitative traits and their population-level outcomes to be captured in ways that directly reflect statistical models of trait–fate relationships. Given increasing data availability, and advances in modelling, there is considerable potential for extending this framework to traits of relevance for infectious disease dynamics.
Here, we provide an overview of host and parasite natural history contexts where IPMs could strengthen inference of population dynamics, with examples of host species ranging from mice to sheep to humans, and parasites ranging from viruses to worms. We discuss models of both parasite and host traits, provide two case studies and conclude by reviewing potential for both ecological and evolutionary research.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | demography; dynamics; infectious disease; Integral Projection Model; measles; murine malaria; parasite |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) > Department of Animal and Plant Sciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2017 09:08 |
Last Modified: | 18 Sep 2017 09:12 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12456 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/1365-2656.12456 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:121233 |