Discrete Event Simulation-Based Resource Modelling in Health Technology Assessment.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article was to conduct a systematic review of published research on the use of discrete event simulation (DES) for resource modelling (RM) in health technology assessment (HTA). RM is broadly defined as incorporating and measuring effects of constraints on physical resources (e.g. beds, doctors, nurses) in HTA models.

METHODS: Systematic literature searches were conducted in academic databases (JSTOR, SAGE, SPRINGER, SCOPUS, IEEE, Science Direct, PubMed, EMBASE) and grey literature (Google Scholar, NHS journal library), enhanced by manual searchers (i.e. reference list checking, citation searching and hand-searching techniques).

RESULTS: The search strategy yielded 4117 potentially relevant citations. Following the screening and manual searches, ten articles were included. Reviewing these articles provided insights into the applications of RM: firstly, different types of economic analyses, model settings, RM and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) outcomes were identified. Secondly, variation in the characteristics of the constraints such as types and nature of constraints and sources of data for the constraints were identified. Thirdly, it was found that including the effects of constraints caused the CEA results to change in these articles.

CONCLUSION: The review found that DES proved to be an effective technique for RM but there were only a small number of studies applied in HTA. However, these studies showed the important consequences of modelling physical constraints and point to the need for a framework to be developed to guide future applications of this approach.