Using 2011 Census data to estimate future elderly health care demand

Many western societies are predicting an important shift in the composition of their populations. The clear historical and anticipated future trend is for the elderly population to increase, both in numbers and as a proportion of the total population (Rechel et al., 2009; European Commission, 2014). For England, the latest 2014-based principal projection by the Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2015) shows the English population aged 50 and older increasing from 19.4 million in 2014 to 24.8 million in 2034, a gain of 5.4 million. This is in the context of a more modest increase of 2.1 million in the 49 and younger population.