Population Projections by Ethnicity: Challenges and a Solution for the United Kingdom

This chapter describes the context, model, estimates and assumptions for projections of ethnic group populations in England at local authority scale, and in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. A bi-regional cohort-component model is used; estimates of the component rates for ethnic groups are developed; assumptions are aligned to recent official projections with one exception. For international migration we assume higher immigration, emigration and net balances of 254 thousand in the long term compared with the most recent official assumption of 185 thousand. The projections show that the UK population grows significantly, from a population of 59.1 million in 2001 to 84.5 million in 2061. Black, Asian and other Minority ethnic groups expand their share of the UK population from 8 to 30 % in that period. This increasing diversity is greatest in the UK’s largest cities but ethnic minority groups grow fastest outside those cities. We show through a comparison of 2001 based and 2011 based projections that there is considerable uncertainty both nationally and locally in future diversity although the direction of travel to a more diverse future is certain.