Policy making under uncertainty in electric vehicle demand

The introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) into the passenger vehicle market has, in recent years, become viewed as a primary solution to the significant carbon dioxide emissions attributed to personal mobility. Moreover, EVs offer a means by which energy diversification and efficiency can be improved compared to the current system. The UK government and European Commission have played an active role in steering the development and market introduction of EVs. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies and the viability of EV technology in the mainstream automotive market. This paper investigates the prevalence of uncertainty concerning the demand for EVs. This is achieved through the application of a conceptual framework that assesses the locations of uncertainty. UK and EU documents are assessed through a review of the published policy alongside contributions from academia to determine how uncertainty has been reduced. This assessment offers insights to decision makers in this area by evaluating the work done to date through a landscape analysis. Results have identified six different locations of uncertainty covering: consumer, policy, infrastructure, technical, economic and social issues.