Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation

In recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims.