Distributing less, redistributing more: Safe and just low-energy futures in the United Kingdom

Low energy demand pathways may be essential for the transition to net zero. However, to date, the distributional impacts of these futures have been neglected, leaving open crucial questions about living standards and inequality. Using the lens of ‘decent living energy’, this article begins to piece together the puzzle by providing a distributional analysis of a recent low-energy-demand, net-zero scenario for the UK. We find that if the UK succeeded in following a low-energy pathway, but income and energy inequality continued increasing at the current rate, 9 million people could lack sufficient energy for meeting decent living standards in 2050. Theoretically, this can be mitigated either by achieving considerable reductions in income inequality, or by ensuring highly energy-efficient technologies are available at all income levels as this reduces the energy required to meet decent living standards. Reviewing various specific policies that could forge a low-energy-demand future, we find some are inherently equitable and others can easily be designed to be so. However, policies could also prove regressive in numerous ways. We thus argue that an equitable, socially-just, low-energy-demand policy pathway would need to be responsive and dynamic, bold and targeted, and joined-up with respect to both policy implementation and assessment.