Predicting iron exceedance risk in drinking water distribution systems using machine learning

A Machine Learning approach has been developed to predict iron threshold exceedances in sub-regions of a drinking water distribution network from data collected the previous year. Models were trained using parameters informed by Self-Organising Map analysis based on ten years of water quality sampling data, pipe data and discolouration customer contacts from a UK network supplying over 2.3 million households. Twenty combinations of input parameters (network conditions) and three learning algorithms (Random Forests, Support Vector Machines and RUSBoost Trees) were tested. The best performing model was found to be Random Forests with input parameters of iron, turbidity, 3-day Heterotrophic Plate Counts, and high priority dead ends per District Metered Area. Different exceedance levels were tested and prediction accuracies of above 70% were achieved for UK regulatory concentration of 200 µg/L. Predicted probabilities per network sub-region were used to provide relative risk ranking to inform proactive management and investment decisions.