Not all campaigns are created equal: Temporal and spatial variability in constituency campaign spending effects in Great Britain, 1997–2015

Existing research on constituency campaigning focuses heavily on studies of single national elections, and cross-temporal variability in campaign effects is rarely addressed. Similarly, campaign effects for a party at a given election are assumed to be uniform across the territory of the relevant polity. But both assumptions are questionable. In this paper, we analyse constituency campaign spending effects at British General Elections from 1997 to 2015 to explore their stability across time and space. In doing so, we also evaluate the empirical utility of some of the arguments theorised by Fisher et al. (2011) to explain campaign variability. Our results suggest parts of the theory, while attractive, do not adequately account for the observed variability.