The Wellbeing–Consumption paradox: Happiness, health, income, and carbon emissions in growing versus non-growing economies

We investigate the relationships between carbon-intensive consumption and two dimensions of human wellbeing (physical health and happiness) for ∼120 countries over the 2005–2015 period. Long-term (∼10-year) relationships are analysed to re-assess the “happiness–income paradox” (i.e. Easterlin paradox) which states that changes in national income and happiness are correlated in the short-term, but not in the long-term. We broaden the scope of Easterlin's analysis in two novel ways. First, the evidence for a “health–income” paradox is explored. Second, a parallel analysis using national consumption-based carbon footprints (instead of income) is conducted to explore complementary relationships with both of the wellbeing indicators. We show that countries with declining per capita consumption, measured in terms of either gross domestic product (GDP) or carbon footprint, have significant reductions in average happiness. In contrast, countries with growing per capita consumption have no significant change in happiness. There is no relationship between changes in per capita consumption and health, irrespective of whether GDP or carbon footprint is growing or not. These findings apply to rich and poor countries alike and are robust to the inclusion of other social indicators, such as social support and autonomy. We find that happiness is less sensitive to declines in carbon footprint than declines in GDP, thus lending support to calls for “decoupling” carbon emissions from economic growth. However, observed decoupling trends are insufficient to meet climate targets. If the 2° target is to be met without a decline in wellbeing, then either decoupling must be vastly improved, or happiness levels must be made less sensitive to declining consumption.