CRIME SEASONALITY: Domestic Disputes and Residential Burglary in Merseyside 1988–90

Simple exploratory analysis based on calls to police in Merseyside for a three-year period shows distinct seasonal patterns in calls to domestic disputes and residential burglary. Calls to domestic disputes show a predictable seasonal variation of 25–30 per cent, and calls to burglary 35–40 per cent. It is suggested that large and predictable seasonal variations might provide insight into the problems in question, as well as direction for crime prevention activity. The potential role of repeat victimization is briefly discussed. Seasonality for domestic disputes and burglary is contrasted with car crime, where a rapid decline in one year suggests that large and unpredictable (non-seasonal) changes in crime levels might be used as a step towards crime prevention—if the cause of the change can be identified. Some possible influences upon seasonal variations are discussed. The present paper is a preliminary study which suggests more widespread examination of seasonal and other variation could provide a useful source of criminological information.