Virtual endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms: models and uncertainty

Virtual endovascular treatment models (VETMs) have been developed with the view to aid interventional neuroradiologists and neurosurgeons to pre-operatively analyze the comparative efficacy and safety of endovascular treatments for intracranial aneurysms. Based on the current state of VETMs in aneurysm rupture risk stratification and in patient-specific prediction of treatment outcomes, we argue there is a need to go beyond personalized biomechanical flow modeling assuming deterministic parameters and error-free measurements. The mechanobiological effects associated with blood clot formation are important factors in therapeutic decision making and models of post-treatment intra-aneurysmal biology and biochemistry should be linked to the purely hemodynamic models to improve the predictive power of current VETMs. The influence of model and parameter uncertainties associated to each component of a VETM is, where feasible, quantified via a random-effects meta-analysis of the literature. This allows estimating the pooled effect size of these uncertainties on aneurysmal wall shear stress. From such meta-analyses, two main sources of uncertainty emerge where research efforts have so far been limited: (1) vascular wall distensibility, and (2) intra/intersubject systemic flow variations. In the future, we suggest that current deterministic computational simulations need to be extended with strategies for uncertainty mitigation, uncertainty exploration, and sensitivity reduction techniques. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2017, 9:e1385. doi: 10.1002/wsbm.1385