Prediction and crime clusters

Predicting crime is a necessary condition for its prevention, and crime is most predictable along those dimensions in which it is concentrated. The most established forms of crime’s tendency to concentrate or cluster are repeat offending, repeat victimization, and geographical hot spots, with complementary concepts including supertargets, hot products, hot places, hot targets, risky facilities, risky routes, and crime sprees and spates. This entry charts the relationship between such clusters, observing how a broad conception of “near repeats,” incorporating crimes with similar situations and characteristics, is a useful unifying concept. Metrics of nearness, or conversely the difference between crime events, may inform efforts to understand and disperse crime clusters. The theories of repeat victimization and hot spots are shown to be overlapping and compatible and suggest a unified theory of clusters should result from greater conceptual integration in this field. The overall aim of such integration should be to inform cluster-busting crime prevention efforts.