Toward an Automated Methodology for the Valuation of Reliability

There is a significant body of research related to the valuation of reliability in transportation. Such work has tended to rely on the Stated Preference (SP) methodology where respondents are asked to make trade-offs between the mean and standard deviation of travel time. The literature has suggested that a Revealed Preference (RP) methodology may provide an alternative means of estimating a value of reliability. In this paper we show how emerging data sources reveal travellers' preferences and, in combination with traditional choice modelling methods, can be used to estimate a value of reliability. We illustrate this RP methodology using smart card data from the multi-modal public transport network of London, UK. We are able to estimate a useable ‘Reliability Ratio’ for three of four public transport modes modelled, and account for an unexpected result based upon the data available.